A strategic prioritization by Ukrainian military intelligence. Each region targeted typically possesses key military, logistical, or industrial assets vital to Russia's war effort.
Probable reasons for the drone distribution as mentioned at news report (Ukranian hyperlink), from highest to lowest priority based on the reported drone count:
1. Kursk Region (53 drones)
Primary Justification: Proximity to Border, Military Staging Ground, and Airbase.
Direct Military Threat & Logistics: Kursk is a direct border region, making it a critical staging area for Russian ground forces, ammunition depots, and logistical supply lines heading towards Ukraine. A high concentration of drones here aims to disrupt troop movements, destroy stored military equipment, and hinder Russian offensive capabilities right at the border.
Khalino Airbase: As discussed, this is a significant military airbase in Kursk, likely housing fighter jets and other aircraft used in attacks on Ukraine. Targeting it aims to degrade Russia's air superiority and reconnaissance capabilities.
Border Operations: Ukraine has demonstrated a willingness to conduct limited ground incursions into Kursk. Extensive drone activity supports these operations by softening defenses, providing intelligence, and diverting Russian attention and resources.
Energy Infrastructure: There are known oil depots in the region (e.g., Polievaya) that supply fuel to the military.
2. Bryansk Region (19 drones)
Primary Justification: Proximity to Border, Logistics Hubs, and Defense Industry.
Logistics and Supply Lines: Like Kursk, Bryansk is a border region and a crucial transportation hub for Russian forces operating in Ukraine. It has significant railway and road networks used for moving military personnel and equipment.
Military Depots: News reports indicate strikes on strategic military depots, such as the 1060th Red Banner Center for Material and Technical Support (formerly 120th Arsenal), which is a known storage and repair base for artillery systems. Degrading these facilities directly impacts Russia's ability to maintain its artillery advantage.
Defense Industry: The region is home to facilities like the Kremniy-EL microelectronics plant, a major producer of military electronics. Damaging such plants disrupts Russia's ability to produce critical components for its weaponry.
3. Smolensk Region (15 drones)
Primary Justification: Strategic Airbases and Deeper Logistics.
Shatalovo Airbase: This is a major military airbase in Smolensk Oblast, known to host various Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft, including reconnaissance and potentially bomber aircraft. Striking such a base aims to reduce Russia's aerial capabilities, particularly those involved in long-range strikes or intelligence gathering.
Logistics Depth: While not a direct border region, Smolensk is still relatively close to Ukraine and sits on important logistical routes extending deeper into Russia. Disrupting operations here can impact supply chains further back from the front lines.
4. Belgorod Region (14 drones)
Primary Justification: Immediate Border Threat, Constant Pressure, and Retaliation.
Direct Frontline Support: Belgorod is the closest major Russian region to the front lines in Ukraine, particularly Kharkiv Oblast. It serves as a primary staging ground and launchpad for Russian artillery and ground attacks into Ukraine.
Constant Pressure: Ukraine maintains continuous drone pressure on Belgorod to degrade Russian capabilities, disrupt attacks, and force Russia to allocate significant air defense resources to protect its own territory, potentially drawing them away from the front.
Retaliation/Interdiction: Attacks here can also be seen as retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, or as attempts to interdict incoming Russian munitions.
Military Installations: There are frequent reports of Ukrainian attacks on military facilities within Belgorod.
5. Tula Region (13 drones)
Primary Justification: Major Defense Industry Hub.
Weapon Production: Tula is a vital center for Russia's defense industry. It hosts key enterprises like the Design Bureau of Instrumentation (KBP), NPO SPLAV (known for multiple launch rocket systems), and JSC Shcheglovsky Val (air defense and guided weapons development).
Disrupting Production: The high number of drones indicates a clear intent to disrupt the production and development of Russian weaponry that is directly used against Ukraine. This is a strategic long-term goal to undermine Russia's military-industrial complex.
6. Orel and Moscow Regions (11 drones each)
Orel Region:
Logistics and Rear Areas: Orel, while not a frontline region, is part of the Moscow Military District and serves as a rear area for logistics and potentially training or staging of forces. Targeting it aims to create disruption further back in the Russian supply chain.
Air Defense Testing: Testing Russian air defense capabilities and finding weaknesses in less heavily defended rear regions could also be a secondary objective.
Moscow Region:
Symbolic and Political Impact: Attacks on the Moscow region, especially near the capital, have a significant symbolic and psychological impact. They demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russia and aim to undermine the Kremlin's narrative of security.
Military and Strategic Facilities: The Moscow region also contains numerous military command centers, air defense installations, and critical infrastructure that, if damaged, could impact Russia's overall war command and control. Airfields like Kubinka are also located here.
7. Crimea (7 drones)
Primary Justification: Black Sea Fleet and Occupation Symbolism.
Black Sea Fleet: Crimea is the main base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Ukrainian drones, often naval drones in conjunction with aerial ones, frequently target Russian naval assets, headquarters, and air defense systems here to degrade Russia's naval power and control of the Black Sea.
Kerch Bridge: While not every drone is aimed at it, the Kerch Bridge, vital for supplying Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine, is a consistent high-priority target.
Occupation Pressure: Crimea's annexation is a major point of contention. Attacks serve to assert Ukrainian claims, undermine Russian occupation, and disrupt military operations emanating from the peninsula.
8. Lipetsk Region (4 drones)
Primary Justification: Key Airbase.
Lipetsk Air Base: This is a crucial combat training center for the Russian Aerospace Forces, analogous to the US Air Force's Nellis AFB. It hosts various aircraft and is involved in pilot training and testing. Attacks here aim to degrade Russia's ability to train and deploy combat-ready aircrews and aircraft.
9. Black Sea (4 drones)
Primary Justification: Naval Targets and Maritime Control.
Russian Fleet Assets: Drones in the Black Sea specifically target Russian warships, patrol boats, and other naval assets that are attempting to maintain a blockade, launch missiles, or transport supplies.
Disrupting Naval Operations: Ukraine aims to push the Russian Black Sea Fleet further away from its coast and shipping lanes, impacting grain exports and overall maritime control.
10. Rostov and Kaluga Regions (2 drones each)
Rostov Region:
Military Command and Logistics: Rostov-on-Don is a major military command center for Russia's Southern Military District, which oversees operations in Ukraine. It also serves as a significant logistical hub. Even a small number of drones can be aimed at high-value command and control nodes.
Airfields: Rostov-on-Don North is an airbase used for transport aviation.
Kaluga Region:
Strategic Airfields (e.g., Shaikovka): Kaluga hosts the Shaikovka Airfield, known to base Tu-22M3 bombers, which are used to launch Kh-22 missiles against Ukrainian cities. Targeting such a base aims to degrade Russia's long-range strike capabilities.
Industrial Targets: Like other regions further from the border, Kaluga may also have industrial facilities supporting the Russian war economy.
This layered approach, spreading drones across different regions with varying numbers, reflects Ukraine's strategy to hit multiple aspects of Russia's war machine: frontline military capabilities, logistical supply chains, defense industry production, and also to exert psychological and political pressure on the Russian populace and leadership by demonstrating deep-strike capabilities.
Comments
Post a Comment